MACRO ECONOMIC CONIDITIONS
Key data
GDP forecasts for 2024:
+0.80%
(OBR)
+0.40%
(OECD)
+0.70%
(IMF)
CPI forecasts for 2024:
+2.20%
(OBR)
+2.70%
(OECD)
+2.50%
(IMF)
Unemployment forecasts for 2024:
+4.50%
(OBR)
+4.50%
(OECD)
+4.20%
(IMF)
Economic growth and lower inflation improving outlook
Although IMF and OECD have yet, at the time of writing, to adjust their forecasts for the UK economy in 2024, the statistics from ONS depict stronger than expected growth in GDP in the first half of the year. The June achievement of CPI returning to 2% – the Bank of England’s target – has now been followed in the publication of July’s figures by a slight uplift to 2.2%.
The Bank acknowledged the persistence of inflationary pressures but noted that external pressures had abated somewhat. The ideal of high growth and low inflation may not have been quite achieved, but the current situation may engender more confidence in the economy’s performance generally.
While a shift to more positive outlook may be underway, there are still ongoing issues in relation to supply concerns in a prospectively burgeoning economy, together with yet-to-be-addressed issues of labour supply and a shrinking pool of both skilled and unskilled workers.
The new government’s aim to abbreviate the planning pathway, while useful in bringing projects to market more speedily, has the potential to encourage price inflation should excess workload appear in a restricted timeframe, particularly in the case of labour-intensive projects such as housing.
CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE PROSPECTS
Key data
New construction work done volume:
-5.71%
full year to June 2024 (ONS)
Repairs and maintenance work done volume:
+8.90%
full year to June 2024 (ONS)
Work done volume:
+0.05%
full year to June 2024 (ONS)
New orders volume:
+18.67%
full year to June 2024 (ONS)
A mixed picture but new order volumes are increasing
Workload pipeline is certainly mixed in its availability across the UK, even though overall statistics suggest a revival of new orders. New order volumes for the first half of 2024 are up by almost 12% over 2023 figures, with only the housing and private industrial sectors reporting negatively.
The relative strength of the uptake of workload volume indicates that bidders are keen to refill order books, and it also evidences the reacquisition of available resources which had been made available in the market due to the completion of projects.
According to ONS, new orders for private commercial work (new build and repairs and maintenance), which includes schools, universities and offices, are up almost 27%, providing more than 30% of total new work. Even more striking is the fact that in Q2 2024, almost 12% of total new work orders arose from the offices sector, whether that be in actual new work or repairs and maintenance.
INPUT COSTS
Key data
Input costs forecast for 2024:
+3.42%
full year 2024 (BCIS)
Input costs forecast for 2025:
+2.99%
full year 2025 (BCIS)
No overall fall in material costs and labour shortage still a concern
The spikes of just over a year ago have now become an accepted part of tender pricing, and stability has all but returned. However, there appears little indication of any overall fall in materials costs. Labour availability will continue to be a concern, although that situation will be variable around the country.
There is no easy answer to this issue. Even if European construction workers were more readily accessible, there are similar shortages being felt in Europe, which would hamper their availability to the UK.
TENDER PRICE FORECAST
Key data
RLB Weighted Average TPI 2024:
+2.97%
full year 2024 (RLB)
BCIS Tender Price Index 2024:
+2.23%
full year 2024 (BCIS)
Market’s watchword is ‘stability’ as inflation set to be constrained
There is a very mixed bag of influences being brought to bear on tender pricing. The pipeline replenishment requirement noted in previous editions of Construction Market Intelligence remains, but is damped by input cost imposts and margin requirements. This sits alongside the knowledge that several large contractors and subcontractors having recently gone under.
For investors and developers, this again emphasises the necessity for de-risking, to present their projects to the marketplace with the greatest possible chance of attracting tight pricing.
Overall, the watchword of this quarter’s report findings in respect of tender pricing is ‘stability’. Although some regional forecasts have been trimmed slightly, there is prospect of more work entering the marketplace next year, but any perceived or expected delay to that is set to further constrain any current breakout of price inflation.
RLB Tender Price Index uplifts published in CMI Q3 2024 vs published in CMI Q2 2024
The chart above shows an average of RLB's regional tender price forecasts for the respective years, weighted by regional new orders volumes of workload for the year to 2023 (ONS).